U.K. HAS WETTEST 12 MONTHS IN 500 YEARS

Friday, 27 April, 2001 During the last 12 months the UK's rainfall has been the heaviest since record began in 1735. Meteorologists say that under previous "normal" conditions the UK would only get this much rain once every 500 to 750 years. Looks like there's no "normal" weather any more. So much for all those people (and the Daily Mail) who claimed global warming was going to make us into the Costa Del Sol.

FROM THE INDEPENDENT WEB SITE (http://www.independent.co.uk)
"14 April 2001 You thought there had never been rainfall like it? You were right. The rain over England and Wales in the past 12 months may have been the heaviest for 500 years and perhaps longer, according to one of Britain's leading independent meteorologists. Statistical analysis indicates that the rainfall is so far above the average that its "return period" ? the frequency with which it could be expected to recur ? is 500 to 750 years, according to Philip Eden, the weather forecaster for the BBC Radio 5 Live. Mr Eden, who runs his own weather consultancy, is a scientist respected by the Meteorological Office, and his calculation will reinforce the growing belief that the seemingly endless downpours of the past year, and particularly of the autumn, represent a quite unprecedented meteorological phenomenon, which may be linked to climate change. Although no link can yet be proved, one of the principal predicted consequences of climate change is more rainfall over the British Isles, especially in winter. The Met Office has announced that the year from 1 April 2000 to 31 March 2001 was the wettest since records began in either 1766 or 1727 (depending on which records you use). In either case, the record is comfortably broken. Mr Eden has examined how unusual the above-average figure is. Over England and Wales as a whole the aggregate total for the 12 months was 52.61in (133.63cm), compared with a long-running average of 36.2in (91.95cm) ? an excess over the average of 45 per cent. He has calculated the return period for such an excess by collecting all available rainfall records from the past 250 years and using a statistical technique known as a Weibull distribution. He arrives at the figure of 500 to 750 years on the assumption that Britain's rainfall climate does not substantially change. The above-average figures for south-east England are even greater. In London 39.19in (99.54cm) fell during the period, compared with an average of 24.02in (61.01cm), an excess of 63 per cent and a figure never before approached in London's rainfall records, which date back to 1697. In the counties of Kent, Surrey and Sussex the excess is so great that the return period "goes right off the scale", and although Mr Eden is reluctant to comment publicly, is thought to be more than 1,000 years. Many rainfall records have been broken in the past 12 months. Over England and Wales, last April was the wettest since 1756; last May the wettest since 1983; last September the wettest since 1981; last October the wettest since 1903; and last November the wettest since 1970. Taken together September, October and November were the wettest autumn on record."
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